Photo : Sputnik/Ramil Sitdikov/Kremlin/Reuters
NIAS Europe Daily Brief #213 I 28 May 2022, Saturday
IN FOCUS
Belarus: A new front of war amid heightened nuclear tensions
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
On 26 May, Belarus’ president Alexander Lukashenko announced the creation of a new military command for the south part of the country that shares a border with Ukraine. Lukashenko added: “A new front has opened and we can’t fail to pay attention to it.” This comes as Ukraine’s general staff claimed that Russia had deployed Iskander-M nuclear-capable missiles in the Brest region of Belarus. The region borders Ukraine and would be an added threat to Kyiv as the West continues its arms supplies to Ukraine. The Iskander-M missiles are short-range ballistic missile systems and could easily attack Ukrainian targets due to their proximity to the border.
What are the inferences from the recent updates?
First, possible nuclear confrontation. Since Russia’s president Vladimir Putin deployed nuclear-capable missiles on Belarusian territory, it has tightened tensions of a possible nuclear war. As a result, the region of Brest has become a potential flashpoint for a nuclear confrontation. The US has owned and deployed nuclear weapons in Europe since the mid-1950s and according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Washington has an estimated 100 nuclear weapons stored across five NATO member states. The US has these bases located in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey. Even though these bases are not geographically connected to the war fronts, these nuclear missiles have the capabilities of reaching targets through dual-capable NATO-designated fighter jets.
Second, a warning to the West. Putin has been warning of nuclear threats since the West started supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine. However, the deployment of nuclear weapons on the border is a step up from just warnings and threats to the possibility of a direct confrontation. Lukashenko also renewed his calls on the West to halt their weapons supply to Ukraine and “prevent a regional conflict in Europe from escalating into a full-scale world war.”
Third, a new front of war. On 27 May, Belarus’ defence minister Viktor Khrenin also announced that Lukashenko had agreed to create militias to boost the country's defence. The decision was taken at the annual assembly of military security and state defence. This also comes as Lukashenko announced a new military command for the country’s south. Thus, it could be speculated that Belarus and Russia are preparing for a possible new front of the war in the north. This would be a shift from Russia’s focus on the southern and south-eastern parts of Ukraine that it was currently focusing on.
Fourth, tactics of distraction. With Ukraine launching counterattacks and winning back areas slowly near the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia regions. The buildup on the Belarus border could also be interpreted as a tactic of distraction to push the war from a single front to a two-front war straining Ukraine’s resources and military. This comes as Russian forces were performing poorly in urban terrain operations On 27 May, nor were they successful in advancing towards the Izyum area near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border On 26 May.
References
“Lukashenko orders new military command for south of Belarus, bordering Ukraine,” Reuters, 28 May 2022
“Ukraine conflict updates,” Institute For The Study Of War, 27 May 2022
“Militia contemplated as way to inflate Belarusian army personnel numbers,” BELTA, 27 May 2022
“Fact Sheet: U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe,” Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 18 August 2021
War in Ukraine: Day 93
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 27 May, the governor of the Kharkiv region, Oleh Synehubov reported that there was heavy fighting in the north and northeast of the city once more. He said that Russia’s forces were again targeting civilians and that at least seven have been killed and 17 have been injured.
Ukraine’s governor of the Kherson region, Hennadiy Laguta, said that Russian forces were fortifying their defences in the north of Crimea. He also said that the humanitarian condition of the region was in extremely bad shape, and other than a 200-car convoy that could leave on 25 May, no other humanitarian corridors could be established in the region to evacuate the people stuck there.
The governor of the Luhansk, Serhiy Gaidiai also gave an update about Russia’s aggression in his region. He said that Luhansk has almost fallen to Russia and Ukraine’s forces might have to retreat from the few pockets in the region where they are still trying to hold on. Referring to the near-surrounded cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk he said: "We will have enough strength and resources to defend ourselves. However, it is possible that in order not to be surrounded, we will have to retreat.”
In an address to an Indonesian think tank, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was definitely not eager to talk to Russia's president Vladimir Putin. But, he also acknowledged that given the condition of Ukraine and how the war was progressing, it might be necessary to talk to the Russian leader. He said: “What do we want from this meeting... We want our lives back... We want to reclaim the life of a sovereign country within its own territory.”
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
Some people from the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic said that they have gained full control over Lyman. Lyman is in the country's east in the Donbas region where forces from Ukraine and Russia have been fighting for several days. A separatist leader in East Ukraine also said that over 5000 Ukrainian prisoners of war were being held in the Donetsk People's Republic.
On 27 May, Russia's foreign ministry said that they will expel employees at the Croatian embassy. This was a retaliatory move on Russia’s part after Croatia ordered 24 members of the Russian embassy to leave.
115 members of the Rosgvardia have refused to fight in Ukraine. According to court documents, as a result of their dissent, these Russian national guardsmen have been fired.
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 27 May, the Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said that Putin has spoken to him recently about benign ready to discuss a prisoner swap with Ukraine. In a 45 minute long phone call, the two leaders also discussed Russia’s supply of natural gas to Austria. Nehammer said he viewed this as an opportunity to confront Putin about the war and its realities. He said that Putin also mentioned how Ukraine was “sabotaging” the process of peace talks and negotiations between the two countries.
Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the impending food. They spoke about ways to get Ukraine’s stock of grains to the rest of the world. Draghi also mentioned that their support is with Ukraine, as was the case with the rest of the European Union countries.
US president Joe Biden, in a speech, accused Putin of trying to wipe out the Ukrainian culture. He also referred to how, with his invasion of Ukraine, Putin had actually catalyzed the rest of Europe to be “Nato-ized.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
The office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said that they have records that 4031 people have died, including 261 children, due to Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. They said that most of these people were killed due to heavy artillery shelling or due to airstrikes. The OHCHR also mentioned that while the recorded number is 4031, the true number is likely to be higher.
References
“Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 94 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 27 May 2022
“Russian shelling kills at least seven in Ukraine's Kharkiv, governor says,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Ukraine military may have to retreat from Luhansk cities, governor says,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Ukraine needs to face reality and talk to Putin, Zelenskiy says,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Pro-Russia separatists say they have taken East Ukraine's Lyman,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Separatist leader: more than 5,000 Ukrainian prisoners held in breakaway region, TASS reports,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“115 Russian national guard soldiers sacked for refusing to fight in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 27 May 2022
“Russia is strengthening defensive positions in Kherson region -governor,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Russia expels five Croatian diplomats in retaliatory move,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Putin says he is ready to deliver gas, discuss prisoner swap - Austria,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“Italy's Draghi discusses unblocking ports with Ukraine's Zelenskiy,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
“U.N. says more than 4,000 civilians killed in Ukraine so far,” Reuters, 27 May 2022
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan
THE UK
UK signs first state-level trade agreement with a US state
On 28 May, the UK signed its first trade agreement Memorandum of Understanding with Indiana. It is expected to boost the trade relation up to GBP 1.1 billion. The UK also aims to expand the direct state-level trade agreements with 20 other states in the US. This step has been mainly taken as a showcase to the post-BREXIT process and also to break the barriers of direct trade with the US. Since Joe Biden's position as President has been restrictive on signing a trade deal with the UK due to the Northern Ireland clash. According to Liberal Democrat MP, Sarah Olney: “utterly failed to secure the US trade deal he said he would, being left to negotiate with one state at a time with his tail between his legs.” (Joshua Nevett, “Brexit: UK signs first US state-level trade agreement with Indiana,” BBC, 28 May 2022)
NATO
NATO-Russia 25 years of the founding act comes to an end
On 27 May, NATO and Russia marked the 25 anniversary of the Founding Act. The step was taken as a rapprochement to facilitate cooperation and smoother relations. It was signed in May 27, 1997, where NATO announced to disregard the countries that came under Warsaw Pact. Post which the first NATO-Russia council was established to start military cooperation. As a first step, France decided to deliver Mistral assault ships to Russia. Upon Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the deal was called off and the ships were traded to Egypt. In the recent council summit in 2022, which was NATO’s attempt to prevent Ukraine's invasion, the act and the years of cooperation came to a standstill with Russia launching the war in Ukraine. (“25th anniversary of the NATO-Russia Founding Act,” Deutsche Welle, 27 May 2022)
SPAIN
Donana National Park in Spain faces the threat of declining water levels
On 27 May, Doñana National Park located in southern Spain which is one of the largest wetlands in Europe is under extensive farming threat. The scientists have warned that decreased water supplies and depletion of water from strawberry farms have risked the national park. According to Doñana Gate Farmers, spokesperson: “In the municipality of Almonte we have over 4,000 hectares of irrigated land, if they reduce the water allocation by half, we would have to reduce the crop by half, and we would have to reduce over 2,000 hectares of cultivation. That is a real ruin.” The reason behind the effect on water levels was the result of drastic climate change, the national park holds the most special flora and fauna species along with 100,000 hectares of lagoon forests. (“Spain's Doñana National Park under threat as groundwater pumping continues,” Euronews, 27 May 2022)